14th February 2020
The EUR/CHF remains of the defensive but the probability of a break above 1.0809 is very likely. If the price breaks the 1.0809, it could possibly force the pair as high as 1.1054 level and 1.1295 level respectively. In contrast, the first support is found at 1.0600 level and 1.0401 level respectively. If the price breaks below the 1.0401 level, it could possibly force the pair as low as 1.0216. The RSI (W)remains at the negative territory and the CCI (W) closed to negative territory.
6th February 2020
The GBP has managed to stabilize today at around 1.3000 against the US dollar. Yesterday the PMI was very impressive. The index was revised to 53.9 from 52.9 points against the forecast of market analysis. In addition, the Bank of England last week kept interest rates unchanged and, of course, this move reduces uncertainty about a non-deal Brexit at the end of 2020.
4th February 2020
The Euro depreciated due to market risk and stock turmoil mainly due to the Coronavirus epidemic. On the contrary, the depreciation of the Euro was minimized by the ECB's monetary policy which has indicated its intention to remain favourable for as long as it takes, which is yet another factor that will help the Euro to appreciate. On the other hand, the US dollar remains overvalued compared to the purchasing power parity of about 1.2900. However, what is noteworthy, is the interest rate differentials against the Euro that have declined over the last period.
21st January 2020
Bank of Japan is expected to maintain stability of the monetary policy. In case Japanese Yen appreciates aggressively, the probability that the BOJ will intervene increases. The Japanese yen is expected to remain in the range from 105.00-115.00 within the next 12-months. A major positive factor for the USD/JPY is an FX carry trade. The negative factor is the escalation of the US-China trade war.
13th January 2020
After the end of the third quarter of 2019, Federal Reserve started Quantitate Easing and said it will begin buying $60 billion of Treasury bills per month. This means a negative impact on the USD because it increases the money supply and reduces purchasing power for the US dollar. Another negative factor for the US dollar - the Central Banks such as Turkey, China and Russia, are reducing US dollar reserves, converting about $ 400-500 billion into other currencies (JPY, EUR).
8th January 2020
XAU/USD expects appreciation for this quarter due to the geopolitical uncertainty combined with higher oil and soft commodity prices, creating the right uptrend for gold. In addition, US and Iranian political and military escalation, following the US air strike which killed the Iranian general, gave the market the excuse to look for the safe-haven assets.
16th December 2019
The previous year was a year of political uncertainty, slowing growth. On the contrary, despite the global risks of recession, stocks continue to rise at high levels. The global economy began to stabilises after the last two years of deceleration. The risk of downtrend remains on the table, but all risk scenarios have shrunk.
3rd December 2019
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates on hold, as was widely expected. I’m surprised to see how the AUD strengthened on the news even though no one thought they would cut. The key here must be that the RBA said that due to “the long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy,” it decided to hold rates steady “while it continues to monitor developments, including in the labour market.”
3rd December 2019
Sterling estimates that the Tories might win the election by double digits and Corbyn's chances of winning the prime ministerial seat are about 5%. It is expected that the victory of the Conservative Party will move the GBP/USD to 1.3500.
27th November 2019
The pound rose to 1,2990 last month after polls continued to show Torie's favourite to win the December 12 National Elections and resolve the 3.5 years of political uncertainty. Prime Minister Johnson through the manifesto promised to invest more social funds for the British people. In addition, it was said that the new taxes are off the table, as opposed to the opposition leader who promised more taxes on funds, businesses and the rich. Tories’ majority give more value to the pound, but the more positive ones give the BOE more room to pursue the monetary policy without obstacles.