3rd January 2020
A big “risk off” day as a US air strike in Iraq killed one of Iran’s top generals, prompting threats of “severe retaliation” from Iran. Precious metals and oil prices jumped, while the safe-haven JPY and to a much lesser degree CHF benefitted. The risk-sensitive commodity currencies fell, except for CAD, which was caught in between the risk-off mood on the one hand and sharply higher oil prices on the other and as a result didn’t move much at all.
2nd January 2020
The main issue facing us today is…is this the last year of the second decade this century or the first year of the third decade? Some people argue that since there was no year ”0,” the first decade ended in the year 10 and the second decade started in the year 11, meaning we are currently still in the second decade of the 21st century. I disagree. If you’re 20 years old and you try to use this logic to argue that you’re still a teenager, people will laugh at you. I say welcome to the third decade.
31st December 2019
A surprisingly volatile market for this time of year – more substantial movement than I would’ve expected for the last active trading day of the year. It’s clearly a “risk off” move as JPY and CHF are at the top of the list, and silver & gold had a pretty good day too. No doubt that’s related to the sea of red I see on my screens when I call up the stock market page – S&P 500 down 0.6% and most Asian markets down this morning too.
30th December 2019
I was off last week and not paying much attention to the markets. That seems like a good call, as there wasn’t that much change in the markets over the last week. The dollar fell against all the major currencies, but not by that much.
30th December 2019
The story of the day was general USD weakness. There doesn’t seem to be any great reason behind the move, especially at this time of year – probably just end-year position-squaring and cleaning up before the New Year holiday.
20th December 2019
Once again GBP is at the bottom. The high for the day was right at the London opening, it then started moving down and kept moving down until the Asian day started. For some reason it got a brief fillip up when the results of the Bank of England meeting were announced, but people quickly thought the better of that and it resumed its decline.
19th December 2019
Still a lot of volatility in the FX market for a period when things are supposed to be quieting down. It’s nice (for me at least) to see currencies responding to domestic economics instead of simply a knee-jerk “risk on, risk off” movement. Looking at the currencies today, it looks like a “risk on” day, and yet stock markets are mixed at best – probably trending lower if anything.
18th December 2019
For sterling, I could just cut-and-paste my comment from yesterday: concerns that PM Boorish’s Johnson’s plans to enforce a hard deadline for negotiating the trade agreement with the EU has simply recreated the concerns that existed before about a “hard Brexit” or a “no deal Brexit,” just with a different deadline
17th December 2019
I thought the GBP bounce would last a bit longer than that. Obviously, looking at the day’s price action, someone was buying EUR/GBP big time, despite the fact that the euro-area PMIs were much worse than expected (as were the UK ones, so maybe those canceled each other out)
16th December 2019
Will it never go away? On Friday I thought we finally had a “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China. Indeed even though the full details and signing probably won’t be until next month, the US did delay the increase in China tariffs that was scheduled to come into force on Sunday, and furthermore tariffs on some Chinese goods will be cut in half.
13th December 2019
Fantastic volatility overnight as UK PM Boorish Johnson wins an overwhelming victory. The Conservatives won in constituencies that they hadn’t held for over 100 year or had never held before. Was that because Johnson was so popular or because Corbyn was so unpopular? Looking at some of the exit polls, I’d say more the latter